13 MAY 2019|THE INTERREGNUM|MOHAMED ELMAAZI
The US Department of Defense (DOD) recently published its annual report for Congress about China’s “military and security developments”. National security and foreign policy expert Lawrence Wilkerson warned that the report is a “budget ploy”, which is part of a larger and more dangerous aggressive US posture, that sees China not only as a competitor but also as a threat to vital US national security interests. He says this world-view is setting the stage for war.
Feature image via Pentagon and US DOD documentary
On 2 May the US Department of Defence (DOD) published its annual report on China for the United States Congress. The report highlights[pdf, p47] China’s apparent plans to “modernise” and expand the size of its navy to become the “largest in the region”. It also describes the Chinese objective of sustaining economic growth by way of investment-heavy, long-term projects, such as the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative and the more “stateguided” focus on cultivating domestic technological capacity with “Made in China 2025”.
Meanwhile US destroyers have been conducting military exercises in the South China Sea along with those of allied governments. Former US Army Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson described the report as a fearmongering project designed to get more cash from the US congress; but he also believes that it reflects a wider attitude which is leading the US to war with China.
It’s all about money
Speaking to Sharmini Peres of The Real News Network on 5 May 2019, Wilkerson characterised the report, “first and foremost” as a “budget ploy”. He based his assessment on his, “personal experience in the Pentagon” but also on his, “contacts now and my experience with what’s happening in the last year, year and a half, with regard to the Pentagon”.
The key issue, said Wilkerson, is that the cost of military personnel is enormous. He explained,
“We’re looking at an all-volunteer force, the personnel cost of which are better than 50 percent of a $700+ billion budget. And just heading up”.
In other words, in spite of the US spending, “almost as much on its military in 2018 as the next eight largest-spending countries combined” there is a constant push for , “money— more and more money”.
The colonel turned civilian professor told this author that he spent nearly 13 years working on national security matters while in government. He has also, “taught national security affairs for fifteen years in civilian life” and before that, “six years at the naval and then the marine corps war colleges”.
China’s growing military
The DOD report says that China enhances in domestic technological capacity- in part – by espionage[pdf, p22, 105, 114-115] . It notes that China has now successfully built its first domestically constructed aircraft carrier[pdf, p47], with another on the way. It also predicts that China will expand its foreign military bases (it opened its first overseas military base in 2018, in Djibouti) in order to protect trade routes linked to the OBOR [pdf, p28]. Wilkerson pointed out that:
“China perhaps has eleven, twelve bases. We have eight hundred bases.”
China’s navy is decades behind the US
Wilkerson also said that the US’s navy is far superior to that of China, with twelve aircraft carriers, compared to China’s two, that are also 10 – 20 years ahead, capacity wise. He also pointed out that aircraft carriers are essentially useless in a ‘real’ war against any major power, as they are highly susceptible to being sunk.
When asked about the DOD’s latest report during a press conference on 6 May, China’s Foreign Minister Geng Shuang said[official English translation]:
“We urge the US to abandon its outdated Cold War thinking and zero-sum game mindset, view China’s strategic intentions and national defence building in an objective and reasonable manner, stop issuing irresponsible reports year after year, and earnestly contribute to the bilateral and [military-to-military] ties between the two sides.”
China on US naval exercises: “Undermining peace, security, and good order in the relevant waters”
The DOD report was released at the same time as the US navy was conducting joint “freedom of navigation” exercises in disputed parts of the South China Sea. According to the highly influential Council on Foreign Relations thinktank (which is responsible for devising a large amount of US foreign policy on behalf of the US capitalist class) the East and South China Seas are, “rich in hydrocarbons and natural gas and through which trillions of dollars of global trade flow”.
According to the US Naval Institute (USNI) on 9 May:
“During the past week, three U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers were active in the South China Sea in two separate operations intended to support unfettered access to the region’s shipping lanes.”
According to the US Department of the Navy, from 2 to 8 May, one of those “guided-missile destroyers” was the USS William P. Lawrence, which joined:
“ships from the Indian Navy, Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) and Republic of Philippine Navy to sail through the South China Sea”
Foreign Minister Geng didn’t hold back saying that China “deplores and firmly opposes” the “trespass of US warships” which are a:
“…violation of China’s sovereignty. It undermines peace, security and good order in the relevant waters.”
He also said:
“The Chinese Navy identified and verified the US warships according to law, and warned them off.”
And that:
“With the concerted efforts of China and ASEAN states, the situation in the South China Sea is steadily improving. China urges the US to stop such provocations, respect China’s sovereignty and security interests and regional countries’ efforts to safeguard peace and stability in the South China Sea.”
Escalating the “trade war” with China
At the same time as these “freedom of navigation” exercises, US president Donald Trump escalated his “trade war” with China. Following failed negotiations during the week starting 6 May Trump announced a doubling of the tariff on $200bn worth of Chinese goods.
In May 2018 he slapped a tax of:
“25 percent on approximately $50 billion worth of Chinese imports containing industrially significant technologies, including those related to China’s “Made in China 2025” industrial policy”.
On 10 May 2019 the Office of the US Trade Representative said:
“Earlier today, at the direction of the President, the United States increased the level of tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on approximately $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. The President also ordered us to begin the process of raising tariffs on essentially all remaining imports from China, which are valued at approximately $300 billion.”
This would mean, thus far, the US government has levied a tax of 25% on a total of $250bn worth of Chinese goods. The USTR statement also says that, “The details will be on the USTR website on Monday [13 May 2019] as we begin the process prior to a final decision on these tariffs”.
Beware the “self-fulfilling prophecy”
In Wilkerson’s view:
“whether it’s Trump and the trade wars, whether it’s the military saying China is the number one threat and doing Freedom of Navigation exercises all the time in the South China Sea, or whether it’s Trump more or less treating the interest section in Taipei as if it were an embassy and making all manner of comments beneath the table”
the US is:
“fulfilling all the prophecies that people have said, including [US Republican Senator Lindsey] Graham, that China and the United States will inevitably fight.”
“They are demarcating the highway to war with China”
“Washington does not have any empathy”, he lamented, noting that they don’t try and see things from their adversaries’s perspective. As a result, US behaviour is leading to a “self-fulfilling prophecy” whereby the White House and the Pentagon are, “demarcating the highway to war with China”.
Wilkerson ended by describing a conversation with, “an otherwise sane and sober person” who said, “it’s better to fight them now than to wait later, because later they’ll be better”.
“Well my question was, why fight them at all?”
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